Finance

Simulator

Five-year reform projection. Runs entirely on your device.

Reference scenarios (FY31, canonical FIU paths)

These are the validated FIU paths. Fork them below; the engine is the interactive layer.

Status quo: b 0.96, g 9%, pay revision deferred

Fiscal deficit (% GSDP): 3.5
Debt, budget (% GSDP): 37.9
Committed (% TRR): 74.7
Arrears (₹ cr): 44,487

Moderate: b 1.05, capex->2.0%, PRC FY30 prospective, KIIFB folded FY29

Fiscal deficit (% GSDP): 3.5
Debt, budget (% GSDP): 39.6
Committed (% TRR): 71.1
Arrears (₹ cr): 37,162

Deep: b 1.10, capex->2.5%, arrears cleared, PSE triage

Fiscal deficit (% GSDP): 2.99
Debt, budget (% GSDP): 39.1
Committed (% TRR): 64.5
Arrears (₹ cr): 1

Stress: g 7%, +100bp, PRC FY28 + retro, disaster FY29

Fiscal deficit (% GSDP): 3
Debt, budget (% GSDP): 38.5
Committed (% TRR): 86.5
Arrears (₹ cr): 45,749

2031 Time Machine: S0 (status quo) vs S2 (full reform)

Reform levers

RevenueSGST/GSDP convergence2.65Own non-tax revenue growth8Central transfers shock-20,000MVT KIIFB earmark redirect0KSEBL electricity duty remittance0

ExpenditureRetirement age increase0Pay revision cycle5DA/DR settlement pace2PSE subsidy & support reduction0PSE divestment proceeds0KSBC/Supplyco merger0Welfare pension DBT0Capital expenditure target1.3Plan expenditure share17.55SCSP/TSP welfare floor3.85

Debt & KIIFBKIIFB liability takeover pace5KIIFB unfunded project funding0Borrowing channel cost spread1

ExogenousNominal GSDP growth10Effective interest rate on new borrowing7

Show uncertainty

Fiscal deficit (% of GSDP) · Debt (% of GSDP)

Data table

FY	Fiscal deficit (% of GSDP)	Debt (% of GSDP)	RD %
2025-26	3.78%	33.22%	2.58%
2026-27	3.0%	33.45%	2.14%
2027-28	3.0%	33.64%	2.14%
2028-29	3.0%	33.79%	2.14%
2029-30	3.0%	33.9%	2.14%
2030-31	3.0%	33.99%	2.14%